Preventing the End of the World

It is challenging to provide an exact number of "end of the world" type stories that have been produced since the concept and interpretation of such stories can be difficult to categorize. However, it's safe to say that thousands of books, movies, and other forms of media have explored apocalyptic or post-apocalyptic scenarios throughout the history of literature and cinema. In fact, some of the oldest written works, dating back more than 4,000 years envision end-of-the-world scenarios. 

The most common themes fall into one of five primary categories including natural disasters, nuclear war, pandemics, alien invasions, and asteroid strikes. However, fantastical scenarios involving zombies or other-dimensional invasions were not considered. The popularity of these stories often reflects societal fears, fascination with survival, and the exploration of human resilience in the face of adversity.

And the disasters fall into two different degrees of doom. Disasters that end human civilization as we know it, and disasters that render the human species extinct, if not all species on earth.

 The question is of all the potential ends to human civilization, which ones could be eliminated or at least greatly reduced by investments in science and technology?

Natural disasters such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes have plagued mankind for time immemorial and we still do not have any real defense against Mother Nature. There is no current technology that will stop the destructive force of a large volcanic eruption or alleviate the devastation of a massive earthquake.

When it comes to natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes our best strategy remains evacuation and temporary relocation until the disaster subsides.

Preventing widespread warfare, the second type of civilization-ending disaster is a complex challenge. It depends on the unpredictable behavior of nation-states, the delicate balance of power and resources, and the influence of raw human emotion. Escalations, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, could potentially lead to a catastrophic nuclear war involving other nuclear powers. The likelihood of civilization's demise, if not the extinction of the human species, is high in such a scenario. Additionally, the existence of secret doomsday weapons adds to the uncertainty, with governments allocating substantial funds toward classified defense spending.

Defense against alien invasions, the third category of disaster, is impractical, as we lack the means to prepare for or prevent such an event. Despite claims and speculations, there is no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial visits to Earth. Even if they were to occur, the advanced technology and weaponry of potential alien species would likely surpass our own capabilities. Advancements in science, technology, and our understanding of the universe might eventually enhance our defense capabilities, but the current threat to humanity is not significant.

Pandemics, the fourth category of disaster, pose a significant challenge to prevention. As demonstrated during the COVID-19 crisis, we lack feasible methods to prevent pandemics entirely. Viruses mutate rapidly and can quickly spread, affecting large populations. However, throughout human history, civilization has managed to avoid widespread collapse despite past pandemics like smallpox, the bubonic plague, and the Spanish Flu causing millions of deaths.

Advancements in technology have reduced the time required for vaccine development and testing. Further progress in personalized medicine, artificial intelligence, big data processing, and nanotechnologies holds promise for pandemic treatment.

The odds of a civilization-ending asteroid or meteor hitting the Earth are very low, but not zero. While the likelihood of such an event happening in any given year is very small, over a long enough time frame, it becomes almost inevitable.

While the majority of small objects entering Earth's atmosphere harmlessly disintegrate, historical evidence reveals the significant damage inflicted by past large strikes, underscoring the need for continued research, detection, and mitigation efforts to protect our planet from potentially catastrophic events. 

In 1908 an approximately 150-200 foot long asteroid or comet entered Earth’s atmosphere and exploded above ground in Tunguska, Russia. The explosion knocked down approximately 80 million trees over an area of 2,150 square kilometers. The blast was comparable to a nuclear detonation, and if it had impacted in a metropolitan area, it would have caused enormous death and destruction.

However, the vast majority of asteroids do not appear to pose a threat to Earth. In terms of the largest potential impactors, the most significant risk comes from objects larger than 1 kilometer in diameter, which could cause widespread devastation if they hit the Earth. NASA roughly estimates 2,000 such objects in our solar system, and we have identified and tracked about 95% of them.

In the event of an impact, each of these objects are potentially much more devastating than the Tunguska impact. They would destroy human civilization as we know it and potentially the entire species in the aftermath.

In response to the threat of asteroid and meteor strikes, the United States established the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), managed through NASA to manage the country’s ongoing efforts in planetary defense.

Currently, most efforts of the PDCO and other agencies worldwide are focused on identifying and calculating the trajectory of objects in our galaxy in time to devise and execute a plan to deflect or destroy it before it hits the Earth.

A few theories on how to protect the earth from objects have been explored by scientists, but none have been tested or significantly funded.

Although the immense scale of our solar system and the limitations of our resources pose challenges to accurately predicting asteroid strikes, we have the necessary technology for this task. The next crucial phase involves putting into action and evaluating plans to divert or eliminate hazardous objects. Enhancing our planet's capacity to detect such objects and intervene in their path would necessitate a significant multinational endeavor, with substantial funding and a comprehensive global approach.

In summary, while it may be challenging to prevent all forms of civilization-ending disasters, investments in science and technology are crucial. Improvements in disaster prediction, preparedness, and response strategies, along with advancements in vaccine development and asteroid detection, can significantly reduce the risks we face. Continual monitoring and research are essential to enhance our understanding of these threats and develop effective strategies to safeguard our planet and the future of humanity.